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Author: Subject: The Obama failure, week six (or so)

Peach Extraordinaire





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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 12:45 PM
In this morning's ever reliably leftist Detroit Free Press, the lead story concerned the continually plummeting stock market and how investors are running as fast as they can from BarryO's porkulus bill.

http://www.freep.com/article/20090303/COL07/903030385/1118/PRINT/Where+s+th e+game+plan?

Indeed the market had bottomed out at a level not seen since 1997 one week after The Immaculate One's attempted atta-boy speech to congress and the nation. By accident or design BarryO is running the market into the bowels of hell. His utopian plans cannot possibly be paid for exclusively by the "eeeeveeel rich" and even BarryO's staunchest supporters are beginning to see thru the smoke and mirrors, albeit begrudgingly. The market is the only 'poll' that matters. Rational people warned of this.

In the same paper were articles about how BarryO has ANOTHER tax cheat on staff ("change") as well as his plans to surrender to Iran and essentially surrender Poland and the Ukraine back to Russia. This after broadcasting our Iraq surrender date. Rational people likewise warned of this.

In the meantime his apparatchiks are attempting to demonize Rush Limbaugh in an effort to get Republican cover for their plans that they themselves apparently have no faith in. Otherwise who needs the Republicans?

All of the items I have addressed are happening today. Now. BarryO is handling all of them wrong. Only his special needs apologists can deny this as they rock spastically back and forth, fingers in ears, shrieking, "Lalalalala..." The smarter ones can't help but wise up.

BarryO IS handling the sand-savages in Pakistan correctly and I did enjoy his humorously dry wit regarding his helicopter. That is sad consolation however for his rape and pillage of a once proud nation.

 

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Extreme Peach



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 12:55 PM
This is a global crisis RBK. Investors in the US are reacting to a broad range of factors as they unfold in world markets.
 

Universal Peach



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 01:01 PM
It is a global crises. The Euro market is worse off than we are...look at Japan. They did exactly what obammy is doing to us now and the result is disaster. The Bond market is going to hell, interest rates are climbing, inflation is just around the corner. How do you change this direction? Tax cuts, incentives and breaks. Reaganomics works.

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 01:49 PM
While it might be dangerous and misguided to single out the administration's policies and proposed policies as the sole reason for the market free fall, it is also naive to think there is no correlation.

In listening to some financial talking heads and their guests there is a feeling that the administration is going too fast. Rather than focusing most of this first year to getting a strong economy restarted and putting off other expensive initiatives, they are pushing forward on campaign promises and large amounts of spending and programs that don't necessarily relate to an economic recovery. Of course this might be matter of opinion, surely the supporters of plans like carbon taxing, select other tax increases, steps towards universal health care, etc to some are key elements of the recovery and while others feel there is a better time to begin those plans. And I think the markets are reflecting some of that thinking.

The budget is raising concerns. The size of this new budget deficit as a % of GDP is 3-4 times what it was last year. So this borrowing that needs done, on top of the borrowing that we have been doing to fund stimulus and rescue packages, it takes out money that might have otherwise gone to the equity or corporate bond markets and investors/markets seem very nervous about the continued willingness of foreign nations to continue buying our debt, not only to fix our economy (which may have a mutual benefit to them), but also to reshape, redesign our country (which they may not get any benefit from). The plead for more foreign capital comes at a time when every country is going through hard times and some of those countries are wanting to spend on their own recovery efforts rather than continually funding ours.

So the world financing is different now, sure Bush borrowed, perhaps recklessly. But the atmosphere is completely different now and the uncertainty of our deficits, debt and appetite for foreign nations for our government funding is having an effect on the markets in addition to a number of other things some of which can be further attributed to this administration and others not.

 

Extreme Peach



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 01:54 PM
quote:
While it might be dangerous and misguided to single out the administration's policies and proposed policies as the sole reason for the market free fall, it is also naive to think there is no correlation.

In listening to some financial talking heads and their guests there is a feeling that the administration is going too fast. Rather than focusing most of this first year to getting a strong economy restarted and putting off other expensive initiatives, they are pushing forward on campaign promises and large amounts of spending and programs that don't necessarily relate to an economic recovery. Of course this might be matter of opinion, surely the supporters of plans like carbon taxing, select other tax increases, steps towards universal health care, etc to some are key elements of the recovery and while others feel there is a better time to begin those plans. And I think the markets are reflecting some of that thinking.

The budget is raising concerns. The size of this new budget deficit as a % of GDP is 3-4 times what it was last year. So this borrowing that needs done, on top of the borrowing that we have been doing to fund stimulus and rescue packages, it takes out money that might have otherwise gone to the equity or corporate bond markets and investors/markets seem very nervous about the continued willingness of foreign nations to continue buying our debt, not only to fix our economy (which may have a mutual benefit to them), but also to reshape, redesign our country (which they may not get any benefit from). The plead for more foreign capital comes at a time when every country is going through hard times and some of those countries are wanting to spend on their own recovery efforts rather than continually funding ours.

So the world financing is different now, sure Bush borrowed, perhaps recklessly. But the atmosphere is completely different now and the uncertainty of our deficits, debt and appetite for foreign nations for our government funding is having an effect on the markets in addition to a number of other things some of which can be further attributed to this administration and others not.


So you are arguing the causal element is Obama and that his polices are exacerbating the global crisis?

 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 01:58 PM
quote:
So you are arguing the causal element is Obama and that his polices are exacerbating the global crisis?


I'm saying that some believe, perhaps rightfully so, that the administration's policies are exacerbating the conditions in our bond and equity markets which is being reflected in recent declines.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 01:59 PM

 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 02:06 PM
quote:
quote:
So you are arguing the causal element is Obama and that his polices are exacerbating the global crisis?


I'm saying that some believe, perhaps rightfully so, that the administration's policies are exacerbating the conditions in our bond and equity markets which is being reflected in recent declines.


There is no doubt that any corrective measure might initially have what is hoped is a short term negative effect. But the declines seem reactive. The market doesn't like the policies which is really the statement that is being made. Will this attitude shift when they realize they will have to function within the parameters of these policies? Obama is not going away. This is a long term stimulus.

 

Universal Peach



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 02:13 PM
This may not be correct, but I read the other day that one bright side in this economy is that the bond market is actually performing well above what is normally expected in relation to the over all stock market. To be specific, High grade Corporate and Municipal bonds are showing yields as high as 8%. This was last week before the last three dreadful trading days, however. Any of the experts care to share their knowledge on this? I would appreciate it as I'm trying to determine If I should adjust my allocation to more money into bonds given the current fiscal mess we find ourselves in.
 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 02:17 PM
Didn't you know that government spending was crowding out private investment, Chain? Ask any Republican, they'll tell you. Plus, cramdowns are killing the bond market. You should stay away from bonds.

 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 02:39 PM
quote:
So you are arguing the causal element is Obama and that his polices are exacerbating the global crisis?
No, not the global crisis. However, we have lead the world out of global crisises before. But those were in times where gov't was still holding a moderately small portion of our GDP, and productivity was still encouraged, rewarded, admired, and desired. The attitudes and proposed policies expressed so far by the new administration show a departure from that, thus setting a very uncertain environment for those who invest, create, invent, and run businesses.

It's fair that our confidence in capitalism has been shaken by events of the past year or two. What is incorrect is to believe that only government has the know-how to fill that vacuum. The root cause was a combination of Federal Reserve monetary manipulation and regulation failure. The symptoms from those mistakes became everything we're living with now: over-valued assets, Wall St. greed, unscruplous lenders, witless buyers, bailouts, and on and on. But the key is to understand the root cause and correct that, not expell the core engine of what built our society.

Those people are seeing little to like when they hear of Obama's proposals to place ever higher taxes on them and the activities of business. As I stated in another thread over the weekend: our entire tax system needs to be changed from taxing productivity to taxing consumption. Whatever you tax, you get less of. And we certainly don't need less productivity right now.

As much as many may like to hate business and those who run them, we should really think twice about replacing that group with the lowest forms of life known: politicians.





[Edited on 3/3/2009 by Fujirich]

 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 02:44 PM
As I recall, it was Roosevelt's New Deal that saved us last time.
 

Peach Extraordinaire



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 02:49 PM
quote:
As I recall, it was Roosevelt's New Deal that saved us last time.


No, that prolonged the situation much as BarryO's New Deal is doing and will continue to do. WWII saved us last time. Hopefully a war economy won't be our savior this time.

 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 03:05 PM
quote:
As I recall, it was Roosevelt's New Deal that saved us last time.
This is highly debated by historians and economists. But if you look at economic growth, nothing Roosevelt did in the 30's really helped. We started to rise in the 40's with the war expendutures. But the real relief didn't come till after the war, when we were the only intact manufacturing economy left and had the military might to enforce our will all over the globe. While everyone else rebuilt, they had few choices but us to buy from.

That's where the true wealth was built that permitted the growth of the middle class and the benefits we've been living off for the last 50-60 years. It's pretty unlikely those circumstances will come around again. Now we have to be smarter, more creative, and not punish the rewards of productive efforts if we hope to get on our feet again.

 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 03:25 PM
quote:
This is highly debated by historians and economists. But if you look at economic growth, nothing Roosevelt did in the 30's really helped.


Because he did not spend enough. It is not highly debated either. There are a couple of revisionists pushing this fable, but most historians say the New Deal propped up capitalism enough to save it (and American style government) for a better day. It definitely relieved immense suffering and gave people hope. You have to remember the threat of outright revolt was very high and people were suffering with no hope until FDR created those programs.

 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 03:36 PM
I am bummed out and surprised.

Billary would not have "done this" to us > no way.

 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 03:45 PM
quote:
quote:
As I recall, it was Roosevelt's New Deal that saved us last time.
This is highly debated by historians and economists. But if you look at economic growth, nothing Roosevelt did in the 30's really helped. We started to rise in the 40's with the war expendutures. But the real relief didn't come till after the war, when we were the only intact manufacturing economy left and had the military might to enforce our will all over the globe. While everyone else rebuilt, they had few choices but us to buy from.

That's where the true wealth was built that permitted the growth of the middle class and the benefits we've been living off for the last 50-60 years. It's pretty unlikely those circumstances will come around again. Now we have to be smarter, more creative, and not punish the rewards of productive efforts if we hope to get on our feet again.


Very true.... but I think that is when we actually M A D E something .We of course are all going to be rocket scientists and computer geeks to actually manufacture anything is way below us.....

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 04:47 PM
quote:
quote:
This is highly debated by historians and economists. But if you look at economic growth, nothing Roosevelt did in the 30's really helped.


Because he did not spend enough. It is not highly debated either. There are a couple of revisionists pushing this fable, but most historians say the New Deal propped up capitalism enough to save it (and American style government) for a better day. It definitely relieved immense suffering and gave people hope. You have to remember the threat of outright revolt was very high and people were suffering with no hope until FDR created those programs.
Without going to the mat over this, I'd just say that the theory of FDR not spending enough is also a highly debatable point. But I respect that it's your perspective.

As mbtogo4 points out, and I know you've referenced it too Goliath, you have to make something in order to create wealth again. Unlike the WWII expendutures, which pushed gov't spending over 40% of GNP, Obama's plan will take it to about 30%. But we don't have a world war that we're fighting on almost every continent. And we don't have much manufacturing infrastructure to generate new wealth. Without those conditions; what's the wisdom of pushing gov't spending so high AND sending signals to the investor/business class that they will be more highly taxed, regulated, and that labor will gain new advantages?

Getting back to the theme of this thread, I believe that's a big part of why there is little optimism in equities these days. I'm not dismissing the global issues and their impact, but right now this administration isn't offsetting that with a plan that is beneficial to the markets. Beneficial to Washington; yes - big time. Beneficial to a business owner or investor: not so much (unless your lobbyist has enough pull).

 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 05:40 PM
Why do we not manufacture things here anymore? Because of coporate greed let run wild by lack of govt oversight and controll.
 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 06:18 PM
quote:
Why do we not manufacture things here anymore? Because of coporate greed let run wild by lack of govt oversight and controll.


Free trade and open markets is a classic Democrat position. Now they just give lip service to stopping outsourcing and opposing free trade agreements to get elected and then appoint free traders to key positions. NAFTA was originally pushed by Bush, but it took a Democrat President to sign it. Years later his wife goes on the campaign trail saying it should be renegotiated because Obama was slamming her on the issue. So Obama gets elected and issues a public statement against Buy American in the Recovery and Reinvestment Bill due to pressure from EU, Canada and US businesses with large export markets or foreign operations, all while naming free trade loving Locke to Commerce and Kirk as Trade Sec. And recently Sec of State Clinton is nearly begging China to continue buying our debt and telling them we wish to expand trade with them. Yes Republicans and Democrats both past and present have blood on their hands.

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 06:23 PM
quote:
Didn't you know that government spending was crowding out private investment, Chain? Ask any Republican, they'll tell you. Plus, cramdowns are killing the bond market. You should stay away from bonds.


The angle taken this morning on CNBC was that government borrowing was crowding out investment.

I think it is reasonable to draw some relationships between the stock markets fall and the administration's agenda. But I don't think the President or his administration needs to bow down to Wall St at all. I advocate some economic and trade views that would be extremely unpopular on Wall St. If a President took my position I would fully expect the markets to act in a negative way. The President should stand by what he believes in, whether it works or not, or whether it is in countries best interest time will tell. Sometimes what is best for Main St isn't best for Wall St. We need a more Main St approach if you ask me.

 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 09:11 PM
Obama on the stock market: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AspJFkzgwq0

Has he seen how much the market has crashed since he took office? What a joke!

He better start caring about the American peoples retirement!

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 09:35 PM
quote:
Has he seen how much the market has crashed since he took office? What a joke!
You are deluded if you think what is happening right now with the stock market is due to a president who has been in office for less than 2 months.

[Edited on 3/4/2009 by lolasdeb]

 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 09:42 PM
quote:
quote:
Has he seen how much the market has crashed since he took office? What a joke!
You are deluded if you think what is happening right now with the stock market has anything to do with a president who has been in office for less than 2 months.
I would suggest you are equally so if you think the proposals of this administration - indicating their desired direction - has not been somewhat a factor of what's going on with the investors. Not for a moment would I lay it all at Obama's feet. But so far, the direction his administration is suggesting is doing nothing to ease concerns about the future business environment.

 

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  posted on 3/3/2009 at 09:43 PM
quote:
Has he seen how much the market has crashed since he took office? What a joke!


How about the 6000 point loss while Bush was in office?

 

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