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Author: Subject: The Whipping Post Presidential Poll Vol. III - Something Slightly Different

Zen Peach





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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:03 AM
OK, we've had two "who are you voting for" polls.

Now, let's try this...

Regardless of who you are voting for, who do you think will actually win?

I'll start...

Voting for Obama...but, I think McCain will win.

 

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Sublime Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:05 AM
Voting Obama, still think McCain will win. Starting to have hope that the repubs get stomped but good.

 

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Extreme Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:08 AM
Voting for McCain, but think Obama will win.

McCain has shot himself in the foot lately and it seems more and more folks are joining Obama's posse.

 

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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:09 AM
Voting for McCain, but know Obama will win

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:11 AM
I'm voting for Obama, and I believe he will win.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:12 AM
Voting for Obama, and I think he'll win.

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:12 AM
Voting for Obama.

Think Obama will win.

 

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Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:12 AM
Don't wanna jinx it, but ...


 

True Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:17 AM
quote:
I'm voting for Obama, and I believe he will win.


Same here. I'm curious about others' predictions of a McCain win, given the current polls. Why do you say that?

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:20 AM
Still undecided....

I think when I get to the polls, I'll just flip a coin.

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins.

 

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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:20 AM
Voting for Obama and I believe he will win.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:24 AM
quote:
quote:
I'm voting for Obama, and I believe he will win.


Same here. I'm curious about others' predictions of a McCain win, given the current polls. Why do you say that?


For me, I have the same cynical feeling I had a year ago. This country is not going to elect a black man named Barack Hussein Obama president. I hope I'm wrong, but I refuse to be even the slightest bit optimistic. Just IMO.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:27 AM
Obama and I think he will win.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:35 AM
I am voting for Obama, but not so sure that he will win.

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:36 AM
quote:
quote:
quote:
I'm voting for Obama, and I believe he will win.


Same here. I'm curious about others' predictions of a McCain win, given the current polls. Why do you say that?


For me, I have the same cynical feeling I had a year ago. This country is not going to elect a black man named Barack Hussein Obama president. I hope I'm wrong, but I refuse to be even the slightest bit optimistic. Just IMO.


Thanks, I was really scratching my head on it. But be optomistic, most of the people who would vote against a black man with a funny name are most likely in solid red states already. The Electoral College is Obama's friend.

 

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Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:43 AM
Voting third party - undecided which one - protest vote because I don't think either of these fools should be President.

I believe Obama will win handily unless

1. October surprise

2. The hidden racism factor is far greater than I believe it to be.

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:50 AM
Voting for neither but think Obama can't lose..unless like Greg says that racism factor is bigger than anticipated. I just can't see him losing.
 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 10:57 AM
Bhawk and I have the same fears and for the same reasons. I am slightly optimistic though looking at polling data. Of course, when I went to bed on election night 2000, Gore had it locked.

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 11:12 AM
quote:
Of course, when I went to bed on election night 2000, Gore had it locked


I feel like the samething happened in 2004 too. I went to bed and every talking head on the television was saying that the exit polls were indicating that Kerry had won. Woke up the next day, Kerry did not win.

Incidentally, can someone explain exit polls to me? Do they interview people coming out of the voting places and see how they voted? If so, I guess people are lying when they are polled?

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 11:17 AM
quote:
quote:
Of course, when I went to bed on election night 2000, Gore had it locked


I feel like the samething happened in 2004 too. I went to bed and every talking head on the television was saying that the exit polls were indicating that Kerry had won. Woke up the next day, Kerry did not win.

Incidentally, can someone explain exit polls to me? Do they interview people coming out of the voting places and see how they voted? If so, I guess people are lying when they are polled?


Pollsters just ask people who they voted for, yes. Matt Drudge had a huge hand in pushing the early exit polls in 2004 when he posted landslide-like exit numbers for Kerry around noon.

It's no so much lying as it is where you are polling. Voting precincts, when you think about it, are quite small when factored against how many there are. If you exit poll in a precinct that historically goes with one party or the other in large margins, your results are almost guaranteed to be skewed.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 12:09 PM
Voting for Obama, but worried that Bush might steal it again.....

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 12:12 PM
Reasons why I am undecided...

McCain/Palin - Pros
1. I think he has the foreign policy experience.
2. He knows foreign heads of state already, which gives him a rapport with them.
3. He's not likely to eff with the 2nd Amendment.
4. He's not likely to raise my taxes.
5. Palin is a nice lookin' woman.

McCain/Palin - Cons
1. McCain's apparent short temper.
2. McCain's shady climb to political and public prominence.
3. McCain's voting record on veteran's issues (and I'm not even a veteran.)
4. Palin's lack of experience.
5. Palin's ultra conservative family views.

Obama/Biden - Pros
1. Obama's ability to inspire.
2. Obama's desire to go after Bin Laden and shift the war on terror back towards Al Queda.
3. Biden has plenty of Senate experience
4. Biden could lead the country if something happened to Obama.
5. Endorsed by The Allman Brothers Band

Obama/Biden - Cons
1. Obama's ultimately short of experience in foreign policy.
2. 2nd Amendment rights (concern)
3. Tax increases to fund entitlement programs (concern)

In hind sight, I wish I would have supported either Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee.

 

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Ultimate Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 12:23 PM
quote:
Reasons why I am undecided...

McCain/Palin - Pros
1. I think he has the foreign policy experience.
2. He knows foreign heads of state already, which gives him a rapport with them.
3. He's not likely to eff with the 2nd Amendment.
4. He's not likely to raise my taxes.
5. Palin is a nice lookin' woman.

McCain/Palin - Cons
1. McCain's apparent short temper.
2. McCain's shady climb to political and public prominence.
3. McCain's voting record on veteran's issues (and I'm not even a veteran.)
4. Palin's lack of experience.
5. Palin's ultra conservative family views.

Obama/Biden - Pros
1. Obama's ability to inspire.
2. Obama's desire to go after Bin Laden and shift the war on terror back towards Al Queda.
3. Biden has plenty of Senate experience
4. Biden could lead the country if something happened to Obama.
5. Endorsed by The Allman Brothers Band

Obama/Biden - Cons
1. Obama's ultimately short of experience in foreign policy.
2. 2nd Amendment rights (concern)
3. Tax increases to fund entitlement programs (concern)

In hind sight, I wish I would have supported either Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee.


Hey Dave, excellent rundown. If I might offer my 2 cents on the 2nd Amendment question, I think any Dem is likely to be generally supportive of some form of gun control, but I don't think Obama is in any way, shape or form gonna get in the way of 4-H Club Gun classes for kids, hunting and other gun sports, or even keeping most classes of firearms in the home or on the person (given local law). What I do think he'll try to do is find some sort of BALANCE -- which is what he tries to do on all te hot-button issues that hae divided Red and Blue America, it seems. In other words, he'll likely focus on classes of firearms and ammo, like assault rifles, automatic weapons, and hollowpoint bullets -- and try to regulate the flow of those in accordance with the wishes of most law enforcement agencies in the US.

My feeling, even though I'm not a gun guy, is that no one is alowed to pick and choose which parts of the Constitution they like, so if I happen to cherish the 1st Amendment I better well support the 2nd one too! Gets me in hot water wit lots of my liberal friends. But I think the devil's in the details of interpretation and trying to reconcile the framers' INTENT with the radically changed and more technologically advanced, complicated world we have now compared to 1789. In that spirit, sometimes we have to interpret the 1st Amendment (Yelling Fire in a crowded theater, Loose lips sink ships), and likewise I think the NRA needs to stop being so black and white and step into the 21st century, a nation where little kids have been killed by stray hollowpoints from drug lords' automatics, and work to find some kind of standard that preserves everyone's interests while forcing some sacrifices all around. It's just one of those issues that can be divisive, and I think Obama has shown on abortion, gay marriage, and other hot-button items that he will do his best to find areas of compromise.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 12:27 PM
Obama on both questions.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 10/15/2008 at 12:28 PM
That's a great rundown, Dave. I will say though, cynic that I am, neither candidate is going to be able to keep any kind of tax cut promise. The first bailout was just that, the first one. Time will tell.

 

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