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Sublime Peach





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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 10:36 AM
....



[Edited on 10/23/2008 by jerryphilbob]

 
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Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 10:41 AM
I heard one economist make the remark if people thought they should put their money in Euros or pounds they should think twice as that's tied somehow to our dollar and, well, we know how that's doing.

 

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Sublime Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 10:53 AM
Actually, that's not true. If the dollar would crash, oil would be trading in Euro's making it the new world standard for currency. If the dollar crashes, oil and gold will drop. It is simple supply and demand. If the USA does not have the ability to buy, then there is MORE for the rest of the world. The World economy actually benefits if the US economy collapses. All of our production has been shipped over seas and we are not the Super Power we used to be. In fact, we could be living like a third world country pretty soon. We are bankrupt as a nation and when the rest of the world wakes up and realizes our currency is worthless, then we are done as a nation.
 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 11:00 AM
quote:
The World economy actually benefits if the US economy collapses.


Dude, are you serious.

 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 11:04 AM
more for them. It works out that way. All we do is consume. Get rid of the consumer, and there is more for everyone else. Simple supply and demand. The demand will go down if the USA is not consuming, thus supply will rise and prices will fall. Get it!
 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 11:09 AM
Well the Bible says "A man will destroy all dominion, authority, power on earth, then he hands it back to God". I Corinthians 15:21-24

So, if you believe in prophecy, know that not only our economy, govt. will fail, so will the other big ones and Jesus will be here living on earth working with others for this goal. The Muslims believe he will be here for 40 years then Judgement Day and the Resurrection will come. I'll tell you something else, many of the mujahids know of someone in Afghanistan whom they call Isa (which is Arabic for Isa/jesus), and no that person is not Osama, but he is in the same area that Osama is; so he may already be here. Jesus will most certainly be a religious man when he returns to earth and he will be with a group of other religious people seeking to put an end to rulers and regimes that do not act and live in accordance with the principles and laws God established.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 11:09 AM
Secondly, all governments will have to fail in order for the anti-Christ to be able to establish his rule, and if the governments did not fail, God could not establish his one kingdom because whereever he tried to, that government would most certainly send it's military and intelligence agents to stop him.

[Edited on 9/27/2008 by gina]

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 11:45 AM
quote:
The World economy actually benefits if the US economy collapses.
Couldn't be farther from the truth. The global economies are all so intertwined that if the US economy failed, there would be massive shocks throughout the world. No one benefits from our economy collapsing.

 

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Sublime Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 02:30 PM
Let's try it like this. Let's say that there are 5 people stranded on an island. Everyone get's a job to help out. One guy collects the wood for the fire to cook the food. One guy is in charge of fishing to catch food for the dinner. One guy is in charge of collecting fruits and vegetables for the dinner. One guy is in charge of cooking the meal. And one guy is charge of eating the feast. The other 4 guys get the scraps left over after he is finished, just enough to get by, so they can do it all over again the next day. If the guy that is in charge of eating gets booted off the island, clearly the other 4 benefit from him being gone. The price of goods will drop and natural resources will be more abundant if the USA is not consuming them. It is really simple supply and demand. We have no production here anymore. We shipped it all overseas and now it will come back to bite us.
 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 02:43 PM
Oil, Gold, and Silver will all DROP in price if the dollar crashes. Simple supply and demand. These are NOT safeguards for your money. The Euro will become the standard for oil and that will dictate it as the new #1 currency in the world. The buying power of the Euro is huge if the dollar crashes. Can you imagine how many dollars it would take to make 1 Euro if the dollar tanked?
 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 02:49 PM
quote:
Let's try it like this. Let's say that there are 5 people stranded on an island. Everyone get's a job to help out. One guy collects the wood for the fire to cook the food. One guy is in charge of fishing to catch food for the dinner. One guy is in charge of collecting fruits and vegetables for the dinner. One guy is in charge of cooking the meal. And one guy is charge of eating the feast. The other 4 guys get the scraps left over after he is finished, just enough to get by, so they can do it all over again the next day. If the guy that is in charge of eating gets booted off the island, clearly the other 4 benefit from him being gone. The price of goods will drop and natural resources will be more abundant if the USA is not consuming them. It is really simple supply and demand. We have no production here anymore. We shipped it all overseas and now it will come back to bite us.


I'm pretty sure I read a book with that story in it by Peter Schiff.

Guys like him raise some interesting points, some of which might be valid, but the fact is the US economy simply can not be "decoupled" from the world economy and everything will be roses for them.

Many investment advisers are seeing weakness in Europe and Asia markets and expect it to get worse with a slower US economy. Why do you think that is?

 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 03:06 PM
Yeah, I saw a video where he was telling that story. It had a bunch of stuff on it and that was one of the videos. There will be a ripple effect thru the world. It will kill us, but only wound them. They will recover in short order where it will take us years to get back to where we were.
 

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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 03:19 PM
JPB is saying gold will drop with a leveled US economy. This contradicts one of the main doomsday predictors, Peter Schiff, who advocates purchasing gold while putting assets in foreign currencies.

I like to know what the pessimists are saying, but I'm highly skeptical of their thinking. When you take out the #1 consumer of virtually everything supply won't remain high without our consumption. There is nobody now, or in the near future, that can replace the trade dollars the US sends abroad for products we import.

 

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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 03:21 PM
I did. And I am not too sure about it anymore. The Euro just seems strong.
 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 03:24 PM
If you have a drop in demand but a stable supply, won't the price drop?
 

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  posted on 9/27/2008 at 03:34 PM
The Euro is weaker now than it was earlier this year, actually near the lows for the year I believe. While gold is back up to where it has been most of the spring/early summer.

If you take the demand out for the products you see the price dropping on who is going to buy them? The rest of the world isn't exactly booming right now. If they all of a sudden have less demand for their products, it will do them no good to have to cut production.

Just think it through a little more. Hedging with foreign investments is fine, but I wouldn't go all in.

I'm not an economist by any means, just an average guy so maybe you think you know better. Are you an economist JPB.

 

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  posted on 9/29/2008 at 09:39 AM
quote:
Euro's might be the way to go!



Not so fast my friend. Financial problems are not isolated to the USA.

quote:
Benelux Governments Rescue Fortis to Halt US Contagion
29 Sep 2008 | 08:56 AM ET

European governments scrambled to shore up banks on Monday, carving up firms and committing billions of euros as the credit crisis tore through Germany, Britain, Belgium and beyond.

The moves reflected efforts in Washington, where a $700 billion bailout plan for financial firms faced a vote by the House of Representatives on Monday.

Lawmakers hope to unfreeze global markets gripped by the worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

In the biggest European bank bailout since the credit crisis began, the Belgian, Dutch and Luxembourg governments took a 49 percent stake in Fortis with a 11.2 billion euro ($16.4 billion) injection.

The rescue of Fortis, the biggest private employer in Belgium, followed emergency talks with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on Sunday. The bank employs 85,000 staff globally.

"The question was whether Fortis would have survived on Monday," Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos told reporters. The firm's chairman, Maurice Lippens, resigned.

The German government and a consortium of banks said they would provide 35 billion euros ($51.2 billion) in credit guarantees to lender Hypo Real Estate, whose shares plunged more than 60 percent in morning trade.

A German finance ministry spokesman said: "The purpose of the whole operation is to allow an orderly winding down of Hypo Real Estate ... An orderly winding down without the bank's assets being burned up."

In Britain, the government was forced to buy up the 50 billion pounds of loans, mostly mortgages, held by Bradford & Bingley.

The government brokered a takeover of lender HBOS earlier this month and nationalised Northern Rock in February. B&B's 200 branches and deposit portfolio were bought up by Spain's Santander for some 400 million pounds.

Iceland was also forced into action as emergency measures to cope with the credit crisis spread across Europe, forcing the government to take a 75 percent stake in third-biggest bank Glitnir in a move that sent the Icelandic crown to a fresh record low against the euro.

Bank rescue deals emerged in Russia and Denmark, too. World stock markets fell, with the MSCI main world equity index down 2 percent to its weakest in more than a week. In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top companies was down 3.3 percent while bank stocks shed 5.4 percent. U.S. futures indicated a sharply lower opening.

Central banks were forced to inject extra billions as nervous banks hoarded cash, sending the interbank cost of borrowing euros for three months to a lifetime high. The euro fell nearly 2 percent at one point while the dollar and safe-haven government bonds surged.

Fortis Rescue

The Fortis deal followed failed efforts to sell a stake to French bank BNP Paribas, a source said. Fortis will sell the parts of Dutch bank ABN AMRO it bought last year to ING in a deal expected to be finalised within two weeks, sources familiar with discussions told Reuters. ING declined comment.

The problems at Fortis, whose shares dropped by a third last week, were partly blamed on its taking a slice of year's 70 billion euro purchase of ABN with partners Royal Bank of Scotland and Santander.

"Integrating ABN AMRO was a step too far for this company to do," Fortis CEO Filip Dierckx told a conference call.

The European Commission said Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes was consulted on the Fortis rescue and was in close touch with the Belgian government all weekend.

"We will look at any state aid involved as a matter of urgency," EU spokesman Jonathan Todd said.

Under EU rules, rescue aid must be limited to six months and to the minimum required to ensure the company's survival.

The involvement of Trichet, who as ECB head is responsible for safeguarding financial stability in the euro zone, was unprecedented in a commercial bank rescue and underlined the concern for the integrity of the banking system.

Chinese insurer Ping An, a 5 percent stakeholder in Fortis, fell nearly 10 percent.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26932822



quote:
Dollar Pares Gains on Fed Swap Announcement
| 29 Sep 2008 | 10:24 AM ET

The dollar pared gains against the euro Monday after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it was increasing currency swap limits to $620 billion with nine other central banks.

In early New York trade, the euro [EUR-TN 1.4448 -0.0164 (-1.12%) ] was down against the dollar, but up from before the announcement.

"The dollar had gained earlier on a relief rally about the bailout plan and it seems that with these central bank measures, we may see some easing in the money market which may help boost risk appetite," said Vassili Serebriakov, a senior currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. "We may see the dollar come off its highs a little bit."

The euro and sterling tumbled had against the dollar early as the impact of the financial storm moved beyond the United States, forcing bank nationalizations in Europe.

A crisis in European banking threatened to overshadow the proposed and hard-fought $700 billion U.S. bank bailout deal that looked set for a vote Monday.

The dollar also pared some gains on news Citigroup will acquire the bulk of Wachovia's assets and liabilities, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance, in a deal that will see the government backstop any losses beyond $42 billion on the bank's $312 billion pool of loans.

"The U.S. dollar is strong not just because a bailout agreement has been reached, but also because developments over the weekend underscore that the credit crisis has gone global," said Stephen Malyon, senior currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto in a note to clients.

The dollar's rally against the single European currency deepened as the Belgian, Dutch and Luxembourg governments nationalized parts of banking and insurance group Fortis and agreed to inject 11.2 billion euros into the financial group.

Sterling dropped to a 10-day low at $1.7962, setting it on course for its biggest one-day percentage fall in more than a decade after the government nationalized the lending business of Bradford & Bingley.

Retail branches and deposits were sold to Spanish bank Santander.

Sterling [GBP-TN 1.8105 -0.034 (-1.84%) ] was last down against the U.S. currency.

Iceland's banking sector stress was highlighted as its government took control of Glitnir, its third-biggest bank.

Analysts said the latest developments snapped attention back to the international nature of the financial crisis, compared with a recent tendency to concentrate on the United States.

Rescue Package

U.S. lawmakers geared up for a vote Monday on creating the massive $700 billion government fund.

Congressional leaders from both parties said they had reached a tentative agreement Sunday, but questions abound as to whether the rescue plan, which aims to use taxpayer funds to buy up illiquid mortgage debt, would restore confidence to shaky markets and head off a deeper downturn.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday that the financial rescue plan should help restore the flow of credit needed to support the economy.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26932775


 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 9/29/2008 at 09:43 AM
When the dollar crashes, and it will, what will the world trade oil in? Not the dollar. I know that Europe is hurting too. But when the dollar fails, what will be the new world currency? THE EURO. Oil and Gold is driven by the US investor. If there is no US investor, those prices must drop. The Euro isn't going anywhere, the dollar is now worthless and all the government wants to do is create more money and more DEBT for the good old USA. If this bill passes, we are all screwed.
 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/29/2008 at 09:44 AM
Economic theory is just like meatloaf. Everyone has their own recipe and eveyone thinks theirs is the best.

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 9/29/2008 at 09:49 AM
I'm just saying you should indulge in some independent thinking rather than buying lock, stock and barrel what the pessimists are selling. The truth probably falls somewhere between the eternal optimists and worst case pessimists.

Guys like Peter Schiff have an alterior motive....he wants your money.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/29/2008 at 10:39 AM
quote:
Well the Bible says "A man will destroy all dominion, authority, power on earth, then he hands it back to God". I Corinthians 15:21-24

So, if you believe in prophecy, know that not only our economy, govt. will fail, so will the other big ones and Jesus will be here living on earth working with others for this goal. The Muslims believe he will be here for 40 years then Judgement Day and the Resurrection will come. I'll tell you something else, many of the mujahids know of someone in Afghanistan whom they call Isa (which is Arabic for Isa/jesus), and no that person is not Osama, but he is in the same area that Osama is; so he may already be here. Jesus will most certainly be a religious man when he returns to earth and he will be with a group of other religious people seeking to put an end to rulers and regimes that do not act and live in accordance with the principles and laws God established.


That's the problem. Some people think "God" established the laws on Earth. He didn't. We did.

I wish the "anti-Christ" would hurry and show up. That might get the religious right off the liberals' backs, at least for awhile.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 9/29/2008 at 01:30 PM
quote:
The World economy actually benefits if the US economy collapses.
Not true. And re: trading your dollars for euros - the current problems in banking industry are not isolated to US banks - this is a global problem. And the idea that the euro would replace all other world currencies if the dollar becomes worthless (which it hasn't and won't) well - have you shared that with the Brits or the Japanese or the Chinese or...

 

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Sublime Peach



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  posted on 9/29/2008 at 01:37 PM
....

[Edited on 10/23/2008 by jerryphilbob]

 
 


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