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Author: Subject: housing double dips

Sublime Peach





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  posted on 5/5/2011 at 01:15 PM
Housing prices are down 11% in the last 9 months alone and has hit a double dip. Add in the cost of inflation and the consumer has little place to hide.



 
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Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/5/2011 at 01:28 PM
this news blew me away as we are not in a large area it includes all types of property

Bank of America has a little over 2000 foreclosures in Horry County that are only waiting on a hearing date, which will lead to an auction date. There are over 5000 properties in Horry County that are in default, but have not had a hearing or are waiting to get on the roster for an auction date.

 

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Maximum Peach



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  posted on 5/5/2011 at 01:54 PM
No, there is no double dip. We have not reached bottom yet. Housing cycles are extremely slow and long. We never reached a bottom, so we cannot have a double dip. We do quite a bit of home price research here at work. It is all very regional, but if you want to look at a national average, we predict another 9% down to get from peak to trough. There are others, like Goldman, who predict another 15% down, from peak to trough. This talk of double dip housing is fabricated.

The other 9% (or whoever you believe) down will also not weigh as much on the economy because housing is simply not as big a part of the economy as it used to be.

 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 5/5/2011 at 02:51 PM
CMBS Delinquency Rate at Record High
By Eliot Brown


Nearly one in 10 loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities are troubled, as the CMBS delinquency rate reached a record high of 9.65% in April, according to loan research firm Trepp LLC.

Up from 9.42% in March, the rate saw a large jump after staying relatively steady since December.

“You would expect to see that delinquency would continue to increase through the end of the year,” said Julia Tcherkassova, an analyst at Barclays Capital, who said the rate could hit as high as 12%. She said she expects it to level off after the end of the year.

The uptick comes even as commercial real estate prices in numerous markets around the country have been on the rise. But borrowers are still running into trouble faster than distressed loans can be resolved, particularly as a growing number of loans made during the peak years – when loose underwriting was prevalent – reach maturities

 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 5/5/2011 at 02:59 PM
Double-dip recession is now undeniable
Commentary: Housing prices are falling, and so is the dollar
By Michael Pento

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. (MarketWatch) — The evidence of a double-dipping housing market and economy are becoming undeniable, even to those who cling perilously to the notion that government intervention has been a salve instead of a poison.

The main evidence presented on the part of the “permabulls” of a healing economy is that corporate earnings have been good. However, S&P 500 earnings from multinational corporations have been significantly boosted by a U.S. dollar /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 DXY +1.53% that has lost nearly 15% of its value in the past 12 months. So earnings look great, but they don’t buy you very much, while small-cap domestic businesses suffer under the scourges of inflation and slow growth.

Recent economic data confirm the move lower in industrial commodities. Wednesday, we saw the ISM’s service-sector index drop to 52.8 from 57.3 in March. New orders plunged to 52.7, the lowest reading since December 2009, from 64.1 in the prior month. And the employment index dropped to 51.9 from 53.7 a month earlier. First-time jobless claims surged by 43,000 to 474,000 in the week ending April 30th, which was the highest reading since August. And the four-week moving average rose to 431,250 from 409,000. Read MarketWatch’s stories on the ISM index and on jobless claims.

But perhaps most importantly, more evidence of an official double dip in home prices was found in a report from Clear Capital. The report stated that its monthly index is now below the prior all-time low set in March 2009. Two highlights (or lowlights) from the report:

Year-over-year national home prices are down 5%.

Home prices have dropped 11.5% in the last nine months, a rate of decline not seen since 2008.

The saddest news of all is the fact that over 25% of all homes with a mortgage are underwater on that loan. Home prices that continue to fall will bring that number higher and create the vicious cycle of a greater percentage of mortgage holders with negative equity, which causes more inventories, which leads to falling prices.
deficit targets along with spending cuts in efforts to line up Republican votes.

The truth is that a double-dip recession was temporarily held in abeyance through a massive government effort to boost consumption. But that intervention in free markets was destined to fail from the beginning. Quantitative counterfeiting Part 2 hasn’t even ended yet, and this ersatz economy that is based on borrowing and printing is already starting to falter. Read the latest from MarketWatch on the Fed.

What does all this mean for the Fed?

A slowing economy with rising unemployment and falling home prices will, unfortunately, keep the Fed in the shipbuilding business — as in “QEIII” — for quite some time. That means when the Fed, Treasury and administration finally acquiesce to allowing market forces to reconcile the imbalances, i.e., allow the deleveraging process and asset-price declines to consummate, the pain will be much worse.

 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 5/6/2011 at 06:42 AM
Morgan Stanley Says "U.S. Home Prices Could Fall 6% To 11% This Year" -Bloomberg (MS)
By Theo Kratz
Benzinga Staff Writer
April 25, 2011

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) lowers U.S. home price forecast. They are expecting home prices to fall 6% to 11% this year reports Bloomberg.

 

True Peach



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  posted on 5/6/2011 at 07:12 AM
quote:
Morgan Stanley Says "U.S. Home Prices Could Fall 6% To 11% This Year" -Bloomberg (MS)
By Theo Kratz
Benzinga Staff Writer
April 25, 2011

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) lowers U.S. home price forecast. They are expecting home prices to fall 6% to 11% this year reports Bloomberg.



Not sure what your point is with the Morgan Stanley report. It's getting to be a little redundant along with some of your other posts on this topic. The financial guys reported that the worst was yet to come 6-9 months ago. The update report is just a further confirmation of such. According to my definition of double dip there hasn't been one in the housing market and is going to going to vary among certain housing areas around the country. The housing market was a huge bubble, of course there is going to be a correction. The fallout from the obscene lending practices will last awhile coupled with the recession in the job market, etc... Some excellent buys can be found in Florida if you are looking to get out from under the thumb of your landlord who will probably boot you out when gold becomes currency as you predict.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/6/2011 at 02:32 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42921284

Silver [SICV1 34.69 -1.541 (-4.25%) ] was the first to crack five trading days ago and is now down more than 27 percent since its high last Friday, including a 10 percent drop today alone. The silver panic forced traders to sell other hard assets to raise cash, with the selling spreading to oil and copper over the course of the last two days.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 5/9/2011 at 10:24 PM
quote:
Not sure what your point is with the Morgan Stanley report. It's getting to be a little redundant along with some of your other posts on this topic.
Diverting attention from recent silver trading news possibly?

 

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True Peach



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  posted on 5/9/2011 at 10:41 PM
quote:
quote:
Not sure what your point is with the Morgan Stanley report. It's getting to be a little redundant along with some of your other posts on this topic.
Diverting attention from recent silver trading news possibly?


That or he forgets he just posted the same story the day before from a different source.

 

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Sublime Peach



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  posted on 5/10/2011 at 09:56 AM
Fannie Mae Falls Back Into the Loss Column
By NICK TIMIRAOS


Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $6.5 billion for the first quarter as a weakening housing market dashed hopes that the company had stabilized.

Fannie said Friday it would ask the government for a fresh taxpayer infusion of $6.2 billion after paying dividends to the Treasury. The loss follows net income of $73 million during the previous quarter.

Fannie's loss came as it increased its loan-loss reserves after it revised down its home-price forecast for 2011, and took bigger-than-expected losses on the sale of foreclosed properties. The mortgage-finance giant booked $11 billion in credit-related expenses, up from $4.3 billion last quarter.

"Right now, we're not seeing a lot of good things in the residential real-estate markets," said David Hisey, acting chief financial officer for Fannie Mae.

Home-price declines pose a big risk to Fannie and its smaller sibling Freddie Mac because the firms could take steeper losses on a rising number of foreclosed homes that must be resold. Fannie and Freddie owned 218,000 homes at the end of March, a 33% increase from a year ago.

The rising losses came despite a decline in the share of single-family loans that were 90 days or more delinquent. Those fell to 4.27% at the end of March, down from 4.48% at the end of last year. Fannie has around $206 billion in delinquent loans on its books, "so with that much exposure, if you just have a little bit of negative things happening, it can have a big impact," said Mr. Hisey.

Fannie's report comes days after Freddie Mac reported net income of $676 million for the first quarter.

"It is clearly too soon to say that they've turned a corner," said Jim Vogel, an analyst at FTN Financial.

The federal government has committed unlimited sums to prop the companies up and keep mortgage markets from collapsing. So far, taxpayers are on the hook for around $138 billion, with $86 billion for Fannie and $52 billion for Freddie.

The government receives preferred shares that pay a 10% dividend in exchange. At the current rate, Fannie must pay the government $2.3 billion each quarter. Fannie has posted losses for 14 of the past 15 quarters.


 
 


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