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Author: Subject: How many here really own Gold/Silver coin?

Sublime Peach





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  posted on 11/25/2009 at 10:38 PM
Just curious with the gold bubble going on there must be tons of people that actually have purchased gold/silver within the last year?

How many people actually have pulled the trigger on gold/silver within the last 12 months?

[Edited on 12/14/2009 by jerryphilbob]

 
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A Peach Supreme



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  posted on 11/26/2009 at 11:27 PM
Meanwhile, the rate of return on gold since 3-9-09 is 26%, and the rate of return of the S&P 500 in the same time frame is 65%. Great hedge there.


Mike

 

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Sublime Peach



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  posted on 11/27/2009 at 05:25 AM
S&P 500 Priced in Gold
November 04, 2009

With equities correcting over the last few weeks and gold rallying to record highs, the price of gold has once again exceeded the price of the S&P 500. It now takes 0.96 ounces of gold to buy the S&P 500. This is considerably less than the long-term average of 1.74 since 1980, and a far cry from July 1999 when it took over 5.5 ounces of gold to buy the S&P 500. The question now is, if gold eclipses 1,100, (Now at 1192) will its time above that level be as brief as it recently was for the S&P 500?





Gold and the Dow have traded near equivalency twice - once when the gold price was pushed to $35 in 1933 (not sure about the actual date) and I think the Dow came close 40+/- and again in the 80's when gold hit 875 and the Dow did as well. So with Dow near 10K and Gold at 1.19K theres a lot of room to roam. It is important to keep in mind a mere 50 years separated the two equivalency events.

The starting point makes a big difference on the Return on Investment. Your picking a point out of thin air is really meaningless and self serving. You keep your worthless dollars and stocks and I will keep my gold/silver that has been worth money for over 500 years. Do you really think that someone half way around the world cares what the Dow or S&P is related to Gold? Try taxing my Gold. Inflation is the silent tax that continues to eat away at your paper while my investment continues to rise against the silent tax of inflation.

FOREX
LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a 15-month low against a currency basket on Wednesday after Federal Reserve minutes showed policymakers saw the U.S. currency's recent decline as "orderly".

Traders dumped the U.S. currency across the board, pushing it down to a 10-month low against the yen, as the minutes also reinforced the view U.S. interest rates will stay essentially at zero until around mid-2010.

The U.S. currency's latest bout of weakness came as European shares .FTEU3 rose 0.7 percent and gold XAU= hit a record high of $1,179.80, underlining the trend for investors to diversify away from the dollar and into other assets.

Minutes from the U.S. central bank's November meeting showed board members considered the dollar's fall against major currencies since March "orderly", further persuading investors the U.S. currency will stay weak. [ID:nN24313828]

"When the Fed says the dollar's decline has been 'orderly' ...they're implicitly saying this is not something they will do anything about," said Johan Javeus, chief currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

The dollar has been sold for much of 2009, falling 8 percent on a trade-weighted basis and 30 percent versus the high-yielding Australian dollar since January on the view U.S. rates will stay low as other countries start to raise theirs.

By 1144 GMT, the dollar index .DXY, which measures its performance against a basket of six currencies, had fallen 0.8 percent to 74.438.

The euro EUR= hit a 15-month high of $1.5096 and was last up 0.8 percent at $1.5076. The Swiss franc CHF= briefly hit parity against the U.S. dollar.

Traders said dollar losses accelerated after Russia's central bank said it would use part of its reserves to purchase Canadian dollars, underlining moves by central banks to diversify out of the U.S. currency.


Central Banks and Nations are running from the dollar. China, Russia, India, and oil producing nations are all trying to dump out their dollars. What happens when these dollars eventually make their way back to the United States? The writing is on the wall and end of the dollar as the world reserve currency is just around the corner. The only way to preserve your wealth is in gold, silver, or other currencies. Don't be caught with worthless greenbacks, nobody is going to want those or anything else tied to the dollar including your stocks, bonds, and 401ks. In the crash of 1929, money was backed by gold and the dollar retained its value. Not so much today.




[Edited on 11/27/2009 by jerryphilbob]

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 12:39 AM
Officially call it a gold bubble.

I've heard the hedge funds and institutional investors that were running up oil in 2008 are now heavy into the gold market and have just as much to do with the price spike as any other reason people might think of. Cheap to borrow money, but they don't want to hold the falling currency so they are parking it in gold.

 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 07:59 AM
Aaaarhg!!! It's not that gold is going up, its that the dollar is going down.

The Dollar Bubble:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZA0qNsf4m0

Gold ETF's vs. Physical Gold:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kg7tcnPCdc

quote:
I've heard the hedge funds and institutional investors that were running up oil in 2008 are now heavy into the gold market and have just as much to do with the price spike as any other reason people might think of. Cheap to borrow money, but they don't want to hold the falling currency so they are parking it in gold.

If I was getting free dollars and I could invest it anything, you would be dumb not to buying up gold. If they are getting ETF's they might as well be throwing their money out in the street. You better have PHYSICAL gold. Most of these guys are buying the ETF's.

[Edited on 11/28/2009 by jerryphilbob]

 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 09:33 AM
Falling dollar is great for the trade deficit, which is way more important than the budget deficit. It means more countries will be buying American, which will put Americans to work. Hell the dollar was lower last year and I don't remember the panic that I see happening here. Smart move on gold, jpb, buy high and sell low.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 09:39 AM
quote:
Falling dollar is great for the trade deficit, which is way more important than the budget deficit. It means more countries will be buying American, which will put Americans to work. Hell the dollar was lower last year and I don't remember the panic that I see happening here. Smart move on gold, jpb, buy high and sell low.


The Ford plant here that made Explorers is retooling to build one of their models that was built in Europe citing that it's cheaper to build them here than in Europe

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 12:25 PM
I'm wondering how buying gold when prices are at historic highs makes any kind of sense, and I'm getting nowhere.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 12:37 PM
If things melt down or collapse as predicted, nobody is going to want gold. Cigarettes, liqour, ammo, non perishable food items, bottled water, ect will be the currency people would care about.

 

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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 01:52 PM
quote:
Aaaarhg!!! It's not that gold is going up, its that the dollar is going down.

The Dollar Bubble:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZA0qNsf4m0

Gold ETF's vs. Physical Gold:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kg7tcnPCdc

quote:
I've heard the hedge funds and institutional investors that were running up oil in 2008 are now heavy into the gold market and have just as much to do with the price spike as any other reason people might think of. Cheap to borrow money, but they don't want to hold the falling currency so they are parking it in gold.

If I was getting free dollars and I could invest it anything, you would be dumb not to buying up gold. If they are getting ETF's they might as well be throwing their money out in the street. You better have PHYSICAL gold. Most of these guys are buying the ETF's.

[Edited on 11/28/2009 by jerryphilbob]


I'll watch your videos later, but for now wanted to reply:

For those who believe there is some kind of economic collapse on the horizon (as you do) then yes there is a case for owning real gold. But my point was that the same people taking oil to record highs are now driving gold up. I've bought gold in the past, but I just see no reason to buy more at these prices. It might go higher yet, but I can't help but think it will come crashing down as all things eventually do. Although I don't think we are heading for a sh:t hitting the fan scenario. I have lots of worries about our economy, but a total collapse just does not seem possible to me.

 

A Peach Supreme



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 02:19 PM
I would actually like to see a show of hands from all of those who follow the advice of the author of this thread. I honestly think it would be interesting to see how many do this.

As of the time and date of my post, there have been 125 views of this thread.




Mike

 

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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 02:29 PM
quote:
I'm wondering how buying gold when prices are at historic highs makes any kind of sense, and I'm getting nowhere.


It reminds me of people who bought homes when the prices were skyrocketting. Maybe a better example was all those people who lost their shirts in dot com stocks.

 

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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 02:30 PM
quote:
I would actually like to see a show of hands from all of those who follow the advice of the author of this thread. I honestly think it would be interesting to see how many do this.

As of the time and date of my post, there have been 125 views of this thread.
Mike


It is foolish to follow any advice from some internet forum. Still, this thread (and all the TV ads) reminds me of the paperboy touting stocks to John D Rockefeller in the late 20's. Mr Rockefeller then knew the crash was imminent, and it was.

Or the Hunt Bros from the 70's, who tried to corner silver, and got wiped out. I may have to look into some inverse gold etfs (shorting the gold price). Not kidding.

 

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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 02:57 PM
Some say gold will hit 3,000 if it does most people will be in deep poo poo.
 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 03:48 PM
I figure the time to buy gold was when it was a lot cheaper.

 

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Zen Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 03:58 PM
quote:
I may have to look into some inverse gold etfs (shorting the gold price). Not kidding.


That's probably the best advice on this thread. All that's supporting the price of gold is the hysteria of the people buying it. Gold is a commodity that will drop a lot faster than it went up when the bubble bursts.

 

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Sublime Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 07:06 PM
I guess most here don't understand that it is not that gold is going up, it is that the dollar is going down. It cost more dollars to buy an ounce of gold because the dollar is worth less (not worthless, yet). As the dollar continues to go down in value, gold will continue to rise. As the fed continues to print more money, more bailouts, and more stimulus, the dollar will continue to lose its value. As countries continue to find ways to dump out of their dollars where do you think they will end up? That's right, here in the good old USA. India dumped out of dollars last month and bought up 200 tonnes of Gold at an all time high and want to buy more? Why would they do that? Becuase they don't want to be holding dollars while it continues to go down in value.

I wonder if you can short the dollar? I am doing by buying gold/silver. I will bet there is an ETF you can buy that would short the dollar. I think Soros made a killing shorting the pound and I will be he has done the same against the dollar.

How will the fed reign in excess dollars once inflation takes off? Better yet, how will they stop inflation once it has begun, which it clearly has.

I predict the price of gold and the Dow will be equal at some point in the near future. It has happened twice and at the rate we are going, it won't be long now.

Of course you can take advice from a stockbroker, what else would you expect them to telll you? Buy stocks! I would rather put my faith in something that is considered money around the world rather than the fed that continues to print money like there is no end in sight. Once the fed and government stop printing and spending, I will consider selling my gold/silver then.

Just wondering? How many of you actually own Gold or Silver?


 

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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 07:43 PM
quote:
I may have to look into some inverse gold etfs (shorting the gold price). Not kidding.

Good luck on that one. Let me know how it works out for you.

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 08:28 PM
quote:
I guess most here don't understand that it is not that gold is going up, it is that the dollar is going down. It cost more dollars to buy an ounce of gold because the dollar is worth less (not worthless, yet). As the dollar continues to go down in value, gold will continue to rise. As the fed continues to print more money, more bailouts, and more stimulus, the dollar will continue to lose its value. As countries continue to find ways to dump out of their dollars where do you think they will end up? That's right, here in the good old USA. India dumped out of dollars last month and bought up 200 tonnes of Gold at an all time high and want to buy more? Why would they do that? Becuase they don't want to be holding dollars while it continues to go down in value.

I wonder if you can short the dollar? I am doing by buying gold/silver. I will bet there is an ETF you can buy that would short the dollar. I think Soros made a killing shorting the pound and I will be he has done the same against the dollar.

How will the fed reign in excess dollars once inflation takes off? Better yet, how will they stop inflation once it has begun, which it clearly has.

I predict the price of gold and the Dow will be equal at some point in the near future. It has happened twice and at the rate we are going, it won't be long now.

Of course you can take advice from a stockbroker, what else would you expect them to telll you? Buy stocks! I would rather put my faith in something that is considered money around the world rather than the fed that continues to print money like there is no end in sight. Once the fed and government stop printing and spending, I will consider selling my gold/silver then.

Just wondering? How many of you actually own Gold or Silver?




I bought some last October when it dipped below $800 oz, when all the hedge funds were liquidating and the price dropped like a rock. I think it will happen again at some point from the level it is at now, don't know when or how far it will drop, but I think it will happen so long as the worst case scenario many believe doesn't occur.

I know where some of your basis for your thinking comes from, remember I read Crashproof. I just have a hard time believing everything Peter believes even though I respect his opinion.

When I look at the dollar vs the Pound or the Euro I don't see it any lower than I've seen it at different times over the last 2 years. Pound has been as high as 2:1 and Euro 1.60+:1, but right now it isn't there. What basis are you using to say dollar hits all-time low, a dollar index, or is it vs a specific currency?

 

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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 08:49 PM
I think real estate is a good investment right now.

I just bought 1,800 acres in Texas.

Great price, only 3 dollars an acre.








[Edited on 11/29/2009 by Brucebcd]

Opps my mistake.

It turns out to be 1,800 acres on an island of plastic the size of Texas floating in the pacific.

Still, there should be a way i can get a mobile home on it.





[Edited on 11/29/2009 by Brucebcd]

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 09:46 PM
quote:
I think real estate is a good investment right now.

I just bought 1,800 acres in Texas.

Great price, only 3 dollars an acre.








[Edited on 11/29/2009 by Brucebcd]

Opps my mistake.

It turns out to be 1,800 acres on an island of plastic the size of Texas floating in the pacific.

Still, there should be a way i can get a mobile home on it.





[Edited on 11/29/2009 by Brucebcd]


Bruce! Where have you been?!?

 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 10:23 PM
The American dollar in the past year has been hammered by almost all currencies?

The Euro gained 17 cents
The Swiss Franc gained 13 cents
The Canandian dollar gained 16 cents
The Australian dollar gained 40 cents

Are these not significant gains in a one year period of time?

Gold in one year has gone from 850 an ounce to 1180.
Silver in one year has gone from 11 an ounce to 17.50.

Until the government stops printing and other countries stop dumping our dollars, inflation will continue to rise and so will gold/silver. At what point do they "pull up" on inflation and at what point will the genie be out of the bottle and they won't be able to do anything about it? I don't trust the fed to do the right thing, they haven't so far, so why your confidence in them to do it in the future?

[Edited on 11/29/2009 by jerryphilbob]

 

Maximum Peach



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  posted on 11/28/2009 at 11:40 PM
quote:
The American dollar in the past year has been hammered by almost all currencies?

The Euro gained 17 cents
The Swiss Franc gained 13 cents
The Canandian dollar gained 16 cents
The Australian dollar gained 40 cents

Are these not significant gains in a one year period of time?

Gold in one year has gone from 850 an ounce to 1180.
Silver in one year has gone from 11 an ounce to 17.50.

Until the government stops printing and other countries stop dumping our dollars, inflation will continue to rise and so will gold/silver. At what point do they "pull up" on inflation and at what point will the genie be out of the bottle and they won't be able to do anything about it? I don't trust the fed to do the right thing, they haven't so far, so why your confidence in them to do it in the future?

[Edited on 11/29/2009 by jerryphilbob]


All that could be true, but I think you missed my question, or maybe I didn't word it right. Over the last 1+ years I have seen where the US Dollar has been substantially weaker vs the Pound and the Euro than it currently is. When the Pound was 2:1 and the Euro was 1.60+:1 vs the Dollar gold was not at the level it is today.
So I ask a legitimate question, it is fine if you don't know the answer, I don't either, or pretend to know. But why is the US dollar stronger today vs the Pound and the Euro than it was in say June 2008, but gold is substantially higher than it was in June 2008? Gold was around $930 in June 2008,

It is ok to say you don't know if that is the case. I don't really think of you as a global currency expert, but since you post like you are one I'll ask my question anyway.

 

Sublime Peach



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  posted on 11/29/2009 at 12:15 AM
That is a good question. I don't really have an answer. The funny thing is that silver has not hit an all time high either and I say it has alot of room to move as well.

It might signal that this is just the beginning. There is alot of room for gold to move. Twice in the history of the dow, gold has equaled the dow. I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again.

I have a feeling this next year is going to be very interesting.


Dollar ETF's

Some traders abandoned the U.S. dollar on Friday and sold call options on an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to the dollar index as the greenback fell broadly.

Shares in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP.P) fell 2.1 percent to $22.32, mirroring a broad decline in the U.S. currency on spot foreign exchange markets.

The exit followed a surge in bullish bets last week in the ETF that led to a sudden shortage of supply, ultimately prompting exchange authorities to halt trading in the fund.

The buildup in bullish call positions may have first been driven, in part, as a play on the Federal Reserve and whether it would signal plans to start withdrawing stimulus spending, thus spurring a rise in current low interest rates.

Instead, the central bank last week did little to dissuade markets from believing rates would remain at record lows near zero well into 2010.

Some UUP call option buys were also to hedge short dollar positions elsewhere in investor portfolios, traders said.

"Bullish option players are scurrying to the exits today faced with the double worry of a sharp reversal in the dollar on top of the additional shares in circulation," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group.

The shortage of shares created a divergence between the fund's value and that of the underlying index. This disappeared when the fund's manager DB Commodity Services LLC, a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank, said it received U.S. regulatory clearance on Thursday to offer more shares to investors.

The issuance of new shares began Friday.

"When that supply became available today, the premium disappeared," said Steve Claussen, chief investment strategist at online brokerage OptionsHouse LLC.

"It seemed that some option investors exited their long call positions earlier in the session, giving up on the idea that the dollar would rally in the near term."

The dollar index .DXY, a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.4 percent on Friday after losing about 1 percent last week. The UUP fell more than that Friday as it made up for the deviation from the index the previous week.

 

Zen Peach



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  posted on 11/29/2009 at 12:02 PM
Mike, I can assure you I pay no attention to jpb's advice. I've already tried buying when prices are high and selling when they are low. It didn't work so good, so I don't do it anymore.

 

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